{"id":20799,"date":"2022-04-19T12:41:41","date_gmt":"2022-04-19T10:41:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage-fp.webenv.pl\/blog\/?p=20799"},"modified":"2022-05-09T08:15:15","modified_gmt":"2022-05-09T06:15:15","slug":"the-transformation-of-the-energy-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.future-processing.com\/blog\/the-transformation-of-the-energy-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"The transformation of the energy industry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Renewable energy is to be defined as a matter of German national security<\/a>, making it a safer alternative to fuel supply chains that can be intentionally or naturally disrupted. The other benefit is the fact that any source of energy may not, by any means, be a danger to public safety or human health. However, these plans must be combined with advanced technology in order to make the most of it.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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\n Prof Dr. Hans-Otto P\u00f6rtner <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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\n This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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\n Dr. Hoesung Lee <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Although the political situation in Germany has changed \u2013 Christian Democrats (CDU) have been replaced by centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) as the biggest fraction in the Parliament \u2013 the latter group has decided to stick with the same policy as its predecessors, with the main goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2045. SPD also wants to have all electricity come from renewable sources by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Together with B\u00fcndnis 90 (Die Gr\u00fcne \u2013 the Greens)<\/a> and Free Democratic Party (FDP)<\/a>, they have discussed a coal exit by 2030<\/a> (which means driving out coal as a source of power generation and closing down all of the 63 remaining coal-fired power stations<\/a>). Also, following the plans that were initiated by the previous government, SPD remains firm on a nuclear phase-out<\/a>. After shutting down three nuclear power plants in 2021, there are only three left in Germany as of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Energy transition: How much electricity does Germany need?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


In the medium term, Germany wants to become climate-neutral<\/strong>. The only question is: how big does the expansion of renewable energies have to be? That depends on how much electricity will be needed in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Germany wants to do more for the climate<\/a>. After the judgment of the Federal Constitutional Court in March, the federal government announced that by 2030 CO2 emissions should fall by 65 percent compared to the 1990 level and not – as previously planned – by 55 percent. This requires more electricity from renewable energy sources than previously planned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The goal sounds promising at first, but the devil is in the details<\/strong>. Because depending on how high the electricity consumption is estimated for 2030, there are quite different dimensions in which wind and solar power plants have to be expanded<\/strong> in order to achieve the 65 percent target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2018 the overall energy consumption in Germany was around 3 640 TWh while the electricity was just around 590 TWh. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to 2021 The Federal Ministry of Economics (BMWi)<\/strong> has assumed that electricity consumption was then on the level of about 645 to 665 TWh<\/a>. “In the last ten to 20 years, power consumption has been relatively constant,” says Johannes Wagner<\/strong> from the Energy Economics Institute<\/a> at the University of Cologne (EWI). “We had gross electricity consumption of around 600 terawatt-hours over a long period of time. It only fell relatively sharply in 2020 due to special effects caused by Corona.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Will we need more electricity in 2030?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


But what applied in the past does not apply to the future. Various experts assume that the federal government’s previous planning is too conservative. Even SPD chancellor Olaf Scholz recently indirectly criticized his fellow minister Peter Altmaier (CDU): “Anyone who claims that electricity consumption will remain the same until 2030 is lying to themselves and the country.”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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So what if the electricity consumption does not stay the same at all, but increases? Maybe even rising sharply? This is the scenario that various energy experts are assuming. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\n The expert commission for monitoring the energy transition, to which I belong, has estimated a value for electricity consumption that is significantly higher than that of the federal government. We are moving around a value of 650 TWh and are therefore still at the lower end of the spectrum. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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\n Prof. Dr. Veronika Grimm <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Professor of Economic Theory at Friedrich-Alexander-Universit\u00e4t Erlangen-N\u00fcrnberg <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The Agora Energiewende<\/strong> think tank also estimates electricity consumption in 2030 at 650 TWh. The EWI calculates that 685 TWh will be consumed in nine years. The Federal Association of Renewable Energies (BEE) is assuming 745 TWh in 2030 and the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems<\/strong> (ISE) is even anticipating electricity consumption of 780 TWh in 2030. That is 70 to 200 TWh more than the Ministry of Economics<\/strong> predicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


E-cars, heat pumps and electrolysers consume electricity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


According to the experts, more energy is needed mainly because traffic has to be switched to e-mobility and buildings have to be heated differently<\/strong>, for example with heat pumps, which in turn need electricity. In addition, the industry will turn away from fossil fuels and will have to switch to synthetic fuels, i.e. hydrogen<\/strong>. The production of green hydrogen (electrolysis) also requires large amounts of electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The federal government’s goal alone of creating electrolysis capacities of five gigawatts by 2030 brings with it a very considerable additional electricity requirement. You have to estimate around 20 additional terawatt-hours of electricity for this,” says Grimm. This corresponds to more than a sixth of all electricity produced from wind energy in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Hydrogen Electrolysis P2G<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Veronika Grimm: “If you want the hydrogen economy to ramp up quickly and the technology to be developed quickly and competently, then you should be quite pragmatic in the transition, allow many colours of hydrogen and then switch to green hydrogen when it is widely available.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


More energy efficiency is not enough<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


So more power will be consumed. On the other hand, there are of course also efficiency gains that reduce power consumption. In this area, the federal government had set itself the goal of reducing electricity consumption by ten percent<\/strong> by 2020 and by 25 percent by 2050 compared to 2008 through greater energy efficiency. However, according to energy experts, these efficiency gains cannot compensate for the additional demand for electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, the BEE<\/strong> says: Classic power consumption will decrease by 48 TWh due to the very ambitious efficiency targets. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\n However, the additional electricity requirement of 205 TWh in the heating and transport sector [\u2026] more than compensates for this decline, so that the total gross electricity consumption will increase by around 174 TWh by 2030. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Agora Energiewende criticizes that large, economically highly profitable efficiency potentials have not yet been systematically exploited<\/strong>, although market-ready technologies are already available today. “The reduction in power consumption has so far fallen well short of our ambitions.”<\/p>\n\n\n

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How big does the expansion of renewable energies have to be?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


How many new wind turbines and photovoltaic systems Germany needs depends on how the hunger for electricity develops. Based on the relatively low electricity estimate by Agora Energiewende, Germany would have to expand around ten gigawatts of photovoltaics, 1.7 gigawatts of onshore wind, and four to five gigawatts of offshore wind annually by 2030. “This is roughly comparable to what we had in the past few years in the record expansion years,”<\/strong> says Mara Kleiner from the Agora Energiewende. “So doable.”<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n However, the expansion in recent years in both photovoltaics and wind energy has been well below these record values. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

Expert Veronika Grimm agrees that it will be quite challenging and a lot of levers will have to be set in motion in order to <\/strong>push the expansion of renewable energies<\/strong> significantly. Especially when it comes to wind energy on land, there are repeated protests from local residents. “That’s why we have to concentrate even more on offshore expansion,” says Grimm. Although that is not unproblematic, new power lines have to be built through Germany, which also meet with resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Planned power lines that connect the windy north with the energy-hungry south of Germany are met with a lot of resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The energy transition can only work together<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


And it probably won’t work alone. “Germany is currently exporting electricity abroad,” says Wagner from EWI, “in the medium term it must be expected that Germany will initially become a net importer.” The example of industry already shows that. Grimm believes that the production of green hydrogen cannot be ramped up quickly enough here. “We have to prepare for the import of green hydrogen at the same time,” says Grimm. <\/p>\n\n\n

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\n There are already various projects with Morocco, Chile, Australia and other EU countries. In addition, blue hydrogen must also be used temporarily. <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

So on there are advanced works on hydrogen, produced from natural gas, whereby the CO2 emissions are planned to be captured and stored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Beginning of the solar age<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


Upheaval<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Photovoltaics already generate the cheapest electricity<\/strong> in most parts of the world. Generation with large-scale plants in sunny regions like here in Mexico is particularly inexpensive. Solar systems are therefore increasingly being built. The power supply is changing fundamentally worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Space almost everywhere<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Solar systems can be set up almost anywhere: deserts, barren areas, excavator holes, roofs and bodies of water are particularly suitable. In Switzerland, the modules are located on an alpine reservoir<\/strong>. Currently, three percent of the global electricity demand is covered by photovoltaics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Dual-use<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Another trend is Agri-solar<\/strong>: solar modules on top and space for agriculture below. Here in China it’s a poultry farm. The shade is particularly suitable in very sunny regions: it makes agriculture possible in deserts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Inexpensive own electricity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Modules make sense on almost every roof in the world. The electricity is used directly on-site and fewer power lines are required<\/strong>. In Germany, solar power from the roof now costs less than a third compared to power from the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Production with a future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


The energy-intensive industry now also wants cheap solar power. One example is the chemical giant Bayer<\/strong>. The factories in Spain are now to be supplied with 100 percent green electricity, primarily with solar power. It’s good for the image and makes investors happy. Investors prefer climate-friendly companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Departure into the solar age<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Shaded parking and electricity for the supermarket. Here in southern Spain, the combination is appreciated and has been practised for a long time. The first solar boom started in Spain 10 years ago<\/strong>. Now the second follows, and at the same time, the switch to electromobility begins. Driving with electricity is also becoming increasingly cheaper and is fuelling the move away from the combustion engine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Batteries are accelerating the trend<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


The solar park in Germany has large battery storage in the containers. Fluctuations in generation and consumption can be balanced out and there is electricity for the night. Batteries are also becoming cheaper, and experts are expecting a global breakthrough for solar battery power plants from 2025. Coal, oil, and gas power plants will then be even more crowded out. Another interesting plant is the hybrid energy park in Haringvliet. It integrates wind and solar plants and energy storage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Finally power<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Around 770 million people worldwide live without access to <\/strong>electricity<\/a>, especially in large parts of Africa and some countries in South Asia and South America. But this is increasingly changing. Since 2016, around 250 million people have had electricity for the first time thanks to photovoltaics. With batteries and light bulbs there is light for the evening. In Bangladesh, more than four million houses have electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


China shows the way<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Solar power used to be expensive. Today it costs only one-tenth compared to 2010 and the costs are falling by 5 to 10 percent per year. That makes the energy very cheap. China in particular has recognized the opportunities<\/strong>. The largest factory there will produce solar panels with an output of 60 gigawatts per year from 2023. For comparison: A modern nuclear power plant has an output of one gigawatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


A bright future for offshore wind plants<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


The future of offshore wind plants looks very bright because they are so efficient. Did you know that an offshore wind park<\/strong> produces three times more energy than an onshore wind park<\/strong> of comparable size? It can even be as powerful as a nuclear power plant, and not reliant on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to get an idea of the size of this energy sector, it\u2019s enough to look at 4coffshore.com map<\/a>, which presents an overview of offshore wind parks. The map shows all of the wind farms that have either been planned, are under construction or are already in operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the biggest and most recent investments in offshore wind energy is Hollandse Kust Zuid<\/a> \u2013 a new wind farm that is being constructed by Vattenfall in the North Sea<\/strong>. The interesting thing here is that this farm has not received any financial support from the government, meaning that it will be the first wind power plant in Europe that is totally subsidy-free. <\/p>\n\n\n

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This is only possible due to significant drops in the costs of offshore wind energy over the last few years. And even though they have been granted permission to install 252 wind turbines with a minimum capacity of 6MW, they will only deploy 140 powerful 11MW wind turbines, which shows that the technology is developing really fast<\/strong>. This is especially worth consideration when you are looking at such long development timelines.<\/p>\n\n\n

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There are, of course, some environmental concerns associated with offshore wind development, such as the underwater noise that is generated during construction (which can be mitigated by, e.g., double or triple bubble curtains, Marine Mammal Observers<\/a>, Passive Acoustic Monitoring, etc.), changing the behaviour of sea animals, or the risk of birds getting stuck in the blades \u2013 although the numbers<\/a> don\u2019t look as bad as some people like to think:<\/p>\n\n\n

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Plus, developers are doing a lot to drive the impact even further down. For example, painting one blade black<\/a> seems to help reduce the number of bird victims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, offshore wind farms have very little negative effect on global warming and the underwater installations even act like artificial reefs<\/a> in some cases, so they may also contribute greatly to sea and ocean life by offering a new habitat for different species. Also, wind-generated power is carbon-neutral<\/a> and can be utilised in climate-friendly hydrogen, kerosene, and diesel production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


What has already been done in technology in terms of renewable energy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n


Although the possibilities for tech companies are endless when it comes to the renewable energy sector, there\u2019s a lot that has already been done in this area. Just look at the examples below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Automation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


There are remotely operated uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)<\/strong> inspecting offshore wind plants. Data acquisition is done remotely which significantly reduces the production of CO2 \u2013 a boat runs on battery, so its environmental footprint is close to zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even though a decreasing number of people are engaged in on-site investigation and more robotics and automation are involved, USV-based solutions also create new job opportunities. For example, the Autonomous Remote Offshore Wind Inspection, Navigation and Deployment (AROWIND)<\/a> Project \u2013 which recently got a $3 million boost from Canada\u2019s Ocean Supercluster<\/strong> \u2013 is expected to create around 330 new jobs (55 jobs directly and 275 indirectly).<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Data<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


Machine learning makes renewable energy more predictable, reliable and viable. Algorithms created to identify patterns from data are widely used for forecasting<\/a>: predicting energy consumption levels and weather conditions<\/strong>, detecting potential problems, and understanding market trends. This all helps organisations adjust their modus operandi to external factors, avoiding costly downtime, wasting less resources and increasing customer satisfaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Software<\/h3>\n\n\n\n


When it comes to software, there are at least five kinds of solutions that are worth mentioning in terms of renewable energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n